Category Archives: Problems

Sometimes Statistics Lie

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Lately, I’ve been noticing that people are using statistics more often to lie instead of using common sense.

For instance, I work with a friend who was very upset because it wasn’t recognized that she increased survey participation by 50% versus the prior month’s participation numbers.  Since I’m a little more mathematically astute, she came to me to check if her calculations were correct (and to complain).  So I quickly ran the numbers in my head and she was correct, she did increase the survey participation by 50%.

Now most of us would agree that a 50% increase is fairly impressive, at least from a mathematical perspective!

Statistics Don’t Tell The Entire Story

The catch with my friend is that the number of participants involved with the survey the prior month was only two.  The month that she became involved with the survey results, the number increased to three participants.  So while technically she can claim that her involvement increased the participation rate by 50% versus the previous month… it’s still just one additional person!

To really make matters worse was the fact that her manager was upset because 2 month prior the survey participation number was four!  So in her manager’s viewpoint, the numbers actually decreased by 25%.  While I wholeheartedly agree with my friend, when you speak in terms one or two people, the statistics really doesn’t matter much.  It could be just luck that one more person filled out a survey in her month than versus the previous month, or two months ago.

Obviously, she was right in her calculations, but the significance of one person doesn’t really matter.  Especially when the goal is for having hundreds of responses per month instead of just single digits numbers.

I personally find that a floating average number, or some other kind of baseline is the best for comparing performance.

For example, with my friend, if the average participation rate for the surveys is one person per month, then realistically 3 actually is a phenomenal number and she should be acknowledge for her efforts.

I’m writing this because all to often I see people on all sides of arguments using mathematically correct statistics in a way that promote their argument without taking into account the historic average of numbers the statistics represent.  This is a common tactic with politicians in general.

Statistics that Use Bad Sampling Sets

Poor Statistical Sample Set

Sometimes Statistics Lie

Okay, I’m going to get nerdy on everybody here, so just bare with me… If the sampling set taken isn’t representative of the general population or the target population being represented, then the statistics that are used on the non-representative sample will be inaccurate.  For example, if you take a count of the eye color of 20 Swedish people as your sample set, you’ll derive a number that states that % of the eye color of everybody is blue.  Obviously, we know this isn’t true, but such sampling occasionally happens, especially in politics.  The above picture declares Dewey is the new president, but we know he wasn’t elected.  This was due to an error in the sample set or size of the sample set.

What to Use When Statistics Lie or Are Abused

Try to find unbiased results.  This isn’t easy though, since usually the statistics that a person or group presents was collected by them for the presentation.  This alone should set off red flags!  How accurate can the statistics be if they are using the statistics for their presentation?  Wouldn’t be be kind of silly of them to present statistics that would undermine there cause?

Personally, I try to come to a conclusion based on common sense with such matters.  This isn’t easy and is highly subjective, but without conducting a fair and representative sample, it’s just not possible to get what the real statistics are around a topic.

Statistics that Don’t Account For All Variables and Time

There is a concept called Spurious Relationships, which basically exists when two variables seem related but actually aren’t.  For instance, one of my favorite examples is that ice cream consumption increases in summer and so does the temperature in that given area.  So does eating ice cream raise the temperature of the climate in summer?  No, but yet the two variables seem to be highly correlated…

So basically, what I’m trying to say is just because a correlation may seem to be a statistical number that make sense, often time it doesn’t.  Using common sense, you can debunk such poor statistical usage and you should question the presenters and their motives.  Don’t be fooled by numbers, just because someone uses statistics doesn’t mean that they are right.

Don’t believe the hype, think things through!

MR

Attacking Jamie Dimon – Are the Protesters Looking Foolish?

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I have to wonder if the Protester are starting to look a bit foolish and uneducated?

The following excerpt was taken from “The Associated Press”:

At one point, protesters stopped in front of a building where they said Dimon, JPMorgan Chase chairman and CEO, has an apartment.

“Where’s our bailout?” they screamed. “How do we end this deficit? End the war, tax the rich!”

JPMorgan was among the banks that received federal bailout funds, and has since paid them back.

Dimon got supportive words Monday from Mayor Michael Bloomberg, who said, “He’s brought more business to this city than maybe any other banker in (the) modern day. … To go and picket him, I don’t know what that achieves. Jamie Dimon’s an honorable person working very hard. He pays his taxes.”

I have real problems with this kind of action, especially when people attack the heroes of the “Great Recession”.

This is why I have problems with the protesters attacking someone like Jamie Dimon:

  • JPMorgan Chase was one of the few banks that didn’t need a bailout, and they took it so other “real problem” banks wouldn’t be singled out. I know this because I followed the financial news from the beginning since I had some money invested back then, and I couldn’t figure out why JP Morgan participated.
  • JPMorgan paid back the bailout money and with interest to boot. So the government made a decent amount of profit off of a bank that didn’t need the bailout anyway.
  • Even the Mayor agrees that Jamie Dimon brought more business in and caused more people to be employed than maybe any other banker in the modern day! When the mayor then says “ To go and picket him, I don’t know what that achieves. Jamie Dimon’s an honorable person working very hard. He pays his taxes.” is significant because here he is risking alienating a group of potential voters. But if it doesn’t make sense (attacking Jamie Dimon), then how can you support the action morally and ethically?

So the protesters are barking up the wrong tree with Jamie Dimon in particular. If the dislike him so much perhaps he’ll go become the CEO of some foreign bank where he would be appreciated. Since Jamie is one of the brightest and most honest individuals in banking, attacking those that are honest, good, hard working people seems kind of dumb to me, not to mention dangerous! You see these type of people are the ones that think outside of the box, do you really want to make an enemy of them?

I was going to end my entire discussion about this matter with yesterday’s post called: Sacrifices Made On the Road To Become A Millionaire, but after reading about the one company (and man) that did the right thing during the housing debacle, it seems like it needed commented on. After all, we know that the majority of the mass media isn’t going to point out this error and injustice being performed.

Think about it from Mr. Dimon’s perspective. He pays his taxes, give to charity, did the right things during the “Great Recession“, and literally outside of his home there is a crowd of protesters single him out?!? That makes about as much sense as protesting the NY firefighters because the twin towers went down from the plane explosions and fires. The fire fighters didn’t cause the fire, they were just trying to help (again like JP Morgan taking a bailout even though they didn’t need to).

I just don’t understand how people can protest a person without knowing the facts. Especially when the individual represent the best American has to offer and help fix the problem?…

How would you like it if people came to your house and protested because your house is green in color, or you have a motorcycle, or some other criteria that singles you out and makes you a target? Would you feel like you are being discriminated against? I know I would, and I would be very bitter about it to boot!

Another analogy would be to attack Peyton Manning because he makes so much money, even though you want to Colts to do well because you are a fan. I think Colt fans have seen what it’s like without Manning playing this season, and it’s not pretty. What these particular Americans and the White House won’t realize is the effects from a superstar CEO like Jamie Dimon not playing or going to play for another team (country)… It wouldn’t be pretty either…

To me, the wise advice “Don’t bite the hand that feeds you” comes into play. In a day when globalization threatens the core middle class in America, these protesters focus their destructive energy on the people busting their butts doing positive things in American? Instead shouldn’t they be focusing their energies on the governmental policies that have enabled the mass exodus of jobs (NAFTA) and other stupid “near-sighted” governmental policies that are real problems that should be addressed?

If you have a great base of knowledge on Jamie Dimon, please chime in. Perhaps I’m wrong about him, tell me your thoughts and if you think he should be a target or if you are like me (and the mayor of the New York), think Mr. Dimon was more of a hero during the financial crisis…

Bests,

MR

Update: I found this interesting excerpt on Wikepedia about Jamie Dimon where even President Obama compliments Jamie Dimon:

Following the acquisition of Washington Mutual by JPMorganChase, President Barack Obama had this to say about Dimon’s handling of the real-estate crash, credit crisis, and the banking collapse affecting corporations nationwide, including major financial institutions like Bank Of America, Citibank, and Wachovia:

“ You know, keep in mind, though there are a lot of banks that are actually pretty well managed, JPMorgan being a good example, Jamie Dimon, the CEO there, I don’t think should be punished for doing a pretty good job managing an enormous portfolio

Now how is that for ironic!

How I Saved a Customer at McDonalds Up to $5,000

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On my way to the 1st financial blogger’s conference, I decided to save some time and drive through the McDonalds drive-thru to pick up a quick meal.

While pulling into the parking lot, I noticed a white box commercial truck snaking around the McDonald’s yellow bar that tells drivers that they can’t drive through the drive thru if there vehicle is higher than so feet (usually around 9).  I found this maneuver to be very strange.  I chalked it up to that fact that the driver was going to not go under the roof and yell her order and pick it up by getting out of the fairly large box truck.

Well….  Apparently the driver forgot or wasn’t the swiftest driver in the McDonalds drive-thru as she drove the box truck up to “Pay Here” windows.  Sure enough a nasty screeching sound happened and the truck got stuck underneath the roof.

I had my windows down since I had just ordered when I heard the cashier say to the driver to back it up.  I thought no, no, no!  Driving it back would rip that part of the siding off since it was sticking, and possible cause damage to the roof!  As the driver started to do that I decided to take action (I was hungry, lol!).

You see, I had an idea!  My idea was that If I were to get a few people on the back bummer, the extra weight would make the shocks go down and the driver would be able to drive forward (or backwards for that matter), without causing any extensive damage to the roof.  I got up on the bummer, and sure enough the truck’s back-end did move down slightly, but not quite enough.

At this point, something special happened!  The driver in the car immediately behind the truck got out and told me what a great idea I had and climbed up.  Then a tall (and a bit heavy) girl (16 or 17) who was coming out of the McDonald’s building and saw what we were doing and asked if we needed help (which we obviously did and gladly took her offer)!

With the three of us on the truck, the truck shocks sunk and instantly the truck lurched forwards!  Unfortunately, the driver was at the back of the truck with us, so the truck was moving without a driver.   Once I realized what was happening, I said “Ummm, the driver is back here, we should jump off now!”  All three of us jumped off, luckily the driver was able to get in at the last moment and stop the truck before it hit other cars.

I was very surprised afterward when even though I stepped up and becoming the problem solver, I wasn’t thanked by neither the McDonald’s cashier nor the driver of the box truck thanked me!

What really impressed me during the entire issue, was that both the lady and the girl complimented me on a such a great idea.  I was especially impressed by the girl!  She was young so I was surprised that she volunteered to help instead of just laughing at the truck driver’s problem and looking away.

It was rewarding enough knowing I did a good deed!

MR

My Car Broke Down, Should I Get a New One?

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Should I replace my car with a newer one?

 

Silver Malibu

Silver Malibu

First, let me describe the car that I would like to replace.

  • It’s a silver 2003 Chevy Malibu with around 97,000 miles on it.
  • It’s not pretty, but that’s okay since I bought it as a work car.
  • Friends at work make fun of me calling it a grandma’s car, but it was cheap (even though I bought it new) so I deal with it.
  • One very big positive in my book is that it’s been paid off since March 2009.
  • It has had its share of problems since the beginning, and it’s difficult to work on.

So since it’s paid off and that’s a big deal to me, you might be wondering why I want to get rid of it?

Here’s why:

  • It’s always had small problems since I bought it.  Such as the fan and air conditioner stopped working after it was out of warranty.
  • It’s a very not noticeable car.  I’ve driven past my wife and friends in it and they don’t even see me.  It’s like I’m invisible…
  • It doesn’t get that great of gas mileage (21 on the Highway, 19 in town).
  • And the main reason is that it’s starting to fall apart!

Yep, as much as I like no car payment, the falling apart reason is why I’m considering buying a new car (by new, I mean newer than the one I currently have).

My latest break down:

I just had lunch and I was driving back to work on a busy, very popular highway when all of a sudden my car gets sluggish.  I think that I have a low tire, so I try to speed up to get over a lane to get to the brim of the road.  The car doesn’t speed up though and it’s like my gas pedal isn’t working (actually it wasn’t).

So I drift over to the side of the road, turn down the radio, get out and check to see if all is well.  After a quick check, I get back in the car and try to start it, but it’s down for the count.  I wait a few minutes and try again, but it still doesn’t start.  I know it’s not the battery since I just bought that the day before.

I start looking for my phone to tell my wife and call the triple A phone number, but my cell phone is nowhere to be found!  Shoot, I left it at work on the charger!  So I wait for a few minutes looking at the car, then start to walk the 5 miles back to work.  I got about 10 steps when someone with a truck pulls over and asks if I need some help!  Hooray!  My savior lets me use his phone and then he drove me to work (he was going that way anyway, actually).  I was cool that a good Samaritan came to my rescue, or at least he saved me some time.

Back at work, I called five shops which none could look at my car for a week!   Finally I find one in a different city, so I take that number down and bum a ride back to my car from one of my work buddies.

I call Triple A and waited.  As I sit in my car with the windows down on the side not facing traffic, I wonder if I’m going to get killed by a semi-truck or really any size car as they go flying past me at 70 to 80 mph.  It doesn’t take much to realize how dangerous this spot is!

Triple A sends a tow truck, and he takes me to the closest mechanic.  The mechanic calls the next day and says that it was the fuel pump!  The mechanic replaced it and two days later I picked it up!  The bill was over 600 dollars!

After picking my car up from the mechanic I drive home and there is a squeaking sound in the right front tire when I turn.  I jack up the car, and notice that there is a leak somewhere near the engine.  I have a hard time getting it into gear sometimes.  And someone clipped my front bumper one or two years ago, and the crack is starting to get pretty long.  When I replaced the battery the day before the car broke down, I notice that the metal platform that it was sitting on crumbs when I touch it, kind of like a graham cracker…  I think my car’s rims are bent, and I need all my brakes done soon.  and of course there is a tune-up…

I can go on and on about the problems that my car has…

If I do decide to take the leap, I’m thinking of going with a Toyota or Honda this time (sad huh).

What would you do in my scenario?  Should I stay (with my current car) or should I go (with a newer car)?

MR