How The Coronavirus Should Affect the United States

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Coronavirus Viewpoint and Known Statistic With Known Datasets

At this stage in time, China and South Korea both has the coronavirus in a manageable form. These two countries (China being the supposed point of origin), were impacted more dramatic initially because they are geographically next door neighbors to each other. While the coronavirus still exists in these countries, both countries have dramatically lowered their infection growth rates. I see no reason that the US and other countries will not have a similar outcome.

While this COVID-19 improvement in China, S. Korea, and the world, it will still have to run its course. That said, it’s not as threatening as the bubonic plague or even the Spanish Flu. With the Spanish Flu, it was highly impactful on total mortality numbers because of the overlap and economic aftereffects of World War I. Pandemics are a very serious deal (check out this article on the worst 5 pandemics, it’s worth a look to provide perspective on then vs today), but today we have science that strips away the supernatural old beliefs about such outbreaks (no bloodletting to get out the evil demons for the US). Such outbreak causes are not unknown or invisible to us today because of the power of technology. We know that outbreaks are either a transmittable virus or bacteria, and we know how to both prevent it, lessen the symptoms, treat it and eventually having a vaccine for it. Even now, drug companies have drugs that are somewhat effective as a treatment of the coronavirus, but not approved yet by FDA. The FDA being cautious to approve treatments and vaccines is positive, although it doesn’t seem that way on the surface.

The first highly impacted countries seem to have had significant contact with China in one form or another. Italy is highly impacted because of a high population density (about 60 million versus 40 million people in Canada) and Italy has a significant Chinese immigration influx (2nd highest group to migrate to Italy 250k in 2019).

Mortality rates for affected citizens in Italy (and France too) both have longer lifespans (in 80s age range) and a higher percentage of elderly in their country versus others. Compound this by their culture of living with their kids as they get older (or maybe even all along), then statistically while their high mortality rate is incredibly sad, it’s not that surprising.

Reasons United States should fare better against the coronavirus (COVID-19)

  1. The United States had more time to observe the impact in China, this gives us a higher reaction time and more options for the virus once it hit the US.
  2. Creative solutions and innovations are being aggressively explored within the United States giving us the advantage of seeing what is working in the earliest impacted countries, and frankly what is not working in those countries.
  3. The United States (excluding major cities like California and New York) has a small population density that countries like Italy, South Korea, and France.
  4. There are plenty of treatments that might already exist that could be used (read about hydroxychloroquine, Remdesivir and Kevzara, and numerous vaccines being tested (Moderna and Gilead being some of the leading candidates). Other FDA approved treatments could be used to indirectly reduce the symptoms to prevent deaths are being considered too. Such MedTech solutions could really take the bite out of coronavirus impact in the US, eventually making it a non-issue.
  5. Spring is hitting in the United States, while nobody is truly sure of the effect of the warmer weather, historically it has helped with other diseases. That is why it’s rare to get a cold in the summer (and this virus is from the same viral family as the cold, so while we are not sure, it does seem likely spring will help).
  6. The US as a whole has a culture that slows the spread of COVID-19 because younger generations don’t live with their parents compared to other countries, and have lower individual counts per house than other countries, and larger average houses sizes (Australia is #1, the US is #2). The US keeps there environments cleaner. US hygiene routines (we wash our hands and take showers more often than most countries) are better on average too.
  7. The United States has one of the best medical industries in the world including the best medical technology (MedTech) and capacity.

Okay, I could go on and on about the advantages we have in the United States to fight the COVID-19 virus. I truly think that aside from Billionaires in the media predicting doom and gloom, things should be considered rationally and using existing data-sets provided from earlier inflicted countries for predictive analysis. If you do want to listen to a billionaire assessment (whom as a group are not any more qualified to assess this pandemic than you or I) listen to Warren Buffett, who has time and time again proven that he is within the top 1% in intelligence along with wealth accumulation. Remember wealth and intelligence, while correlated, is not highly correlated. Warren Buffett is both a genius in intelligence and wealth!

I’m sure that time will show that statistically, the US is going to be more like Australia than Italy in their ratio of total deaths caused by COVID-19 versus the entire US population at the conclusion of the coronavirus pandemic. I just hope we don’t go overboard by shutting down the entire country for something that I think will not be lethal to 99% of the US population. Yes, we all have a good high probability to get it, but it wouldn’t be as lethal at the media will lead you to believe! So far the statistics are showing that 81% of the confirmed folks that get it have mild to moderate symptoms. So that means that the “not confirmed” population who get it and just think they have the normal flu or cold, are not counted in that statistic!

Surprisingly as I type this the president is communicating a lot of the exact same things that I’m mentioning above…

Honestly, this is not the end of the world, and I think history will show this is not that impactful from a lethal perspective.

Unfortunately, economically, we’re going to take a hit in the short term (I’m guessing it will take 6 months to 1.5 years for the economy to recover and get back up to pre-coronavirus panic levels). The federal government is setting up financial relief for a quick economic recovery though, so I’m hoping for the best!

During this time, I’m buying stock in small chunks slowly because of free trades that most financial companies (brokers) provide!

Take care, take precautions, but don’t freak out!

Don

Coronavirus Recession 2020?

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Ironically, I scheduled my vacation this week and sure enough what happened… my state government practically shuts down the entire state. Thanks, governor DeWine, for closing all schools and colleges too. Restaurants, theaters, gyms, and bars are all shut down at least until the end of the month. I already have enough toilet paper (lol, see https://www.cnn.com/2020/03/16/us/newport-911-toilet-paper-trnd/index.html and https://www.nytimes.com/2020/03/13/business/toilet-paper-shortage.html for more details) all joking aside we did buy some extra food though. I have enough regular food for 1 month and enough “near food” stuff (protein powder) for at least another extra month.

So, what did I do this morning? I turned on the TV to CNBC and tried to determine the emotion of the masses in hopes of determining how long this downturn might last, and if I should start stepping up my purchases of stock (I’m already taking small nibbles now since most brokers have no commission fees for trades). Traditionally, I’m always early when I jump back into the stock market after a deep dip (I was a month and a half early calling the bottom in 2008).

So even though the mortality rate is not that high (around 2%, and could actually be less), and the young age groups up to the start of 60 aren’t affected much, the country is talking about shutting down everything except “needs” related businesses (grocery stores mainly). The reasoning is not without merit, it isn’t so much that a country shutdown prevents the spread of the virus, it just slows the rate of spread so the hospitals can accommodate the surge in patients. I put forth the argument that the virus is already more widely spread than we believe, but without data, there is no way of knowing.

A new game changer is that Regeneron has come up with a treatment (not a vaccine) that could treat the coronavirus and possibly help prevent it with an existing cocktail of drugs. Hard to say, we’ll see but it’s believed that it might be in circulation more quickly than a coronavirus vaccine. Too bad I didn’t hear about this treatment until after the market was closed! Regeneron – REGN, was up over 11% today…

I’m hoping that if what Regeneron is working on does the trick, then there is a good change that the downturn might start to cease by the end of the second quarter. Hard to say, well see.

Just to end with a little bit of humor, check out this video from Ginger Billy

How Rednecks prepare for the Coronavirus

Stay safe and sane during these very odd, but hopefully short, strange times.

Don

Flash from the past – my third financial comic strip

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Ha, I remember when I created this Mr. Penny comic strip (he’s the blonde, I’m the green dot), it was more criticism about the belief of what wealth is and how to successfully build it. Too many people spend their wealth in foolish ways, and really don’t build a true wealth build system.

In the comic strip I reference the book “The Great Gatsby” as a financial book, but the fictional character “Mr. Gatsby” isn’t really creating wealth, he’s just earning/accumulating money faster than he’s spending it. Earned income is not forever, and sometimes drops off quickly that’s why he should have been building an investment portfolio first! Mr Gatsby’s income was through selling illegal alcohol, but if he survived in the story, he would have lost his income either by incarceration or the loss of his business model when prohibition ended.

Below is my best personal work in the series from a drawing perspective. The only thing I would have changed was the communication bubble. It looks more like a thought bubble than actual speaking bubble. Then again, maybe he was imagining speaking to me…

To see the actual comic strip, click on this -> Mr. Penny learning finances.

Memories… lol

Have a great week!

Thanks,

Don

Why I’m not Afraid of the Coronavirus COVID-19

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The coronavirus (COVID-19) is not good, that’s a given, but for the following reasons I’m not worried about it. Call me crazy, but I’m actually investing in downtrodden stocks. Don’t get me wrong, I wish this never happened and I fear for the elderly. It’s a definitely a scare for them, and rightfully so (especially the 80+ crowd and those that might has an existing condition).

Okay, now that I pretty much identified that I hate that this is happening, the following are the reasons that I’m not afraid of this virus and I’m actually participating by investing in a small purchase increments (I call it nibbling) in the stock market.

Reasons not to fear the Coronavirus (COVID-19)

  • According to the site worldometer.com, people under 40 years old have less than a 1/4 of 1 percent chance (.20%) of actually dying from this virus (mortality rate). And of that under 1% group that happen to die from it, most had underlying cardiovascular or other health issues. So the average person under 50 is fine (those in the 50 range only have a 1.3% mortality rate, so again… not too bad). In fact, children that are in the 0 to 9 age group so far have no reported deaths from the virus (according to worldometer.com).
  • I’m betting the statistics are excluding a lot of people that had the virus and beat it without even knowing it. Shoot, in the US, medical practitioners are just getting the COVID-19 testing kits. Even with the medical personnel getting them now, there is a limited supply of the these kits. So there is a great chance that the true mortality rate numbers are most likely less than they appear.
  • Everybody is using China as sample set for the statistics because they have the largest set of case numbers since it’s speculated that China is the point of origin, but their environment is different than ours. Their population behavior, hygiene and overall culture (example, a lot of men supposedly smokes over there) is much different than the culture in the United States and elsewhere.
  • While developed countries have a hard time using the measures China was able to use to control the virus, we also have positives that China (currently) doesn’t have. For example, a lot of us can work from home like google recently announced. We wash our hand more often, use Purell more often, and have cleaner environments and food. The US is not China. Not to say that China hasn’t made great strides over the past 10 years, because they have!
  • Times are different now versus the Spanish Flu days (surprisingly, it’s speculated that the Spanish Flu started in China too). We understand the science behind the way such diseases get spread around and understand both preventative measures (washing hands, etc) and nutritional information to slow that spread. We are also able to enhance our body’s immune system to help aid our recovery if we do get it.
  • It’ll be warmer soon, so people will get vitamin D from the sun, and maybe the ultraviolet rays from the sun will slow down the spread of the virus too.

For all these reasons and more, I’m just not afraid of the virus and perhaps you shouldn’t be either.

I don’t believe I’ve ever seen the stock market drop so quickly. I have to wonder if it would still drop as quick as it has if we still had or would bring back the uptick rule? It seems like such a rule has value in these scary, panic driven times (that’s why it was created in the first place).

So what I’m going now…

I’m taking my emotion out of the equation and buying stock, but in nibbles not large chunks. Back in the old days (like 2 years ago), nibbling wasn’t possible because of brokerage transaction fees. But since those fees are now zero, why not buy small amounts of stock… Shoot, even a $50 dollar investment (or less) is now possible… I personally don’t like to go below $500 dollars, but I would if I were a very young investor just starting out. While the falling knife scenario still might be happening, I’ll still be nibbling away… I guess I’m riding the dip in the stock market downswing. I’m not in a hurry though, I bought some shares on Monday (3/9/2020). Next month, I might buy more shares or if we go much deeper into a bear market (which is a drop of more than 20% from the market high).

No fear!

Don