Tag Archives: bring back the uptick rule

The Morality Rate of the Coronavirus (covid-19) is much less than you Think

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Update 3/27/2020, US just now confirmed they have more cases than China, but probably because the US has done more testing than China… People freak out because of “new” cases, but really it’s just that we’ve tested more, so more people are detected. Still, I wish the US would do more like suggesting to citizens that they wear masks and test and approve meds more quickly for usage.

I’ve heard people say that the mortality rate of the coronavirus (covid-19 virus) is somewhere between 3 and 4%. They say that the mortality rate of coronavirus is much worse than the 1918 influenza Pandemic (also called the Spanish Flu). This claim is incorrect, sort of. I’ll explain why I believe that the impact will be well less than 1% and while concerning, not as bad as the media will have you believe.

Let me start by saying that the dataset from the Spanish Flu is weak. I’ve seen worldwide mortality rates anywhere from .6% to 3%. The CDC put the worldwide mortality rate at 1% (50m out of 500m), and estimate the US mortality rate was .5% to .65% of the entire us population.

First, the true mortality rate of the coronavirus vs US entire population should be less than .5% (1 in 200)

The United States is still developing its coronavirus datasets, but we missed the first cases so we are not starting from the beginning. I’m sure there were thousands of people that had the virus and beat it before anyone had any idea what it was. I’m sure most people that had it just thought it was the flu. I know a paramedic that has talked to healthcare people (mainly nurses and few doctors) and they said that they had a high number of people come into the hospital last year, believing they had the flu, but they tested negative (meaning they didn’t have the flu) after testing was applied. So the US and the entire world is not starting at square one with this virus.

I believe the Chinese statistics that they have provided the world (literally, thank China for the data)! Looking at the Chinese datasets, and making postulations from their data metrics versus their entire population, the Chinese mortality rate could be significantly less than .1% for their 2020 year! To be totally honest, when I number crunch their data, I’m getting a mortality ratio that is between .001% and .002% for the Chinese entire population in 2020, but that’s pretty optimistic… but possible. This number is a far cry from the mortality rate of the Spanish Flu.

So the US could have numbers even better than China, but it will be close. China today is not China of 20 years ago (or even 10 years ago). They have made incredible progress in all areas. So, the US mortality rate versus the entire US population could be less than .1% too, and maybe much less. So we will not have a mortality rate higher than the Spanish Flu, and most likely will have a mortality rate much, much lower!

Well see, it’s too early to bet the bank that this virus is not as impactful statistically as the media claims.

Things we are doing are still worthwhile because this is a new virus that we don’t have antibodies for it and it could mutate into something either more benign or lethal. If we are smart about this and handle it with care, and keep hammering at it, the end impact could be minimal from an entire US population mortality rate measurement.

So, please don’t think 3% of the entire US (or world) population is going to die at the end of 2020. That prediction just doesn’t add up versus the known datasets from China!

A lot of the virus mortality impact in the US depends on using hotels, malls, gyms, any large areas for patient areas with beds that can be used for larger cities in California and New York. We need all folks to step and help our larger city citizens in any way possible. We also need the elderly and those Americans with existing at heath conditions to be quarantined or separated as much as possible from the bulk of society for the next few weeks (or month). Such a separation will enable help them to get service from the medical community if they get the virus later (hopefully they don’t get it at all). I suggested an approach called “phased reducing” (or phased diminishing) the virus that I think had merit earlier and still might be of value.

Thanks, be careful,

Don

Where Is The Uptick Rule?

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I watch the market recover today, enough so that the smaller retail investors (middle class investors) might have believed the market had turned and bought some stock.  Then WHAM, either the whales decided to take profit, or the automated machines (stock terminators? hasta la vista baby) kicked in and the DOW ended up down more than 173 points.

I watched this turn of events and all that I kept wondering is “Where is the Uptick Rule, and why hasn’t it been re-instated yet“?  Ironically, as I thought this question, other older guest investors on CNBC asked the same question about 30 minutes after I wondered it myself that day.  I’ve been complaining about the loss of the uptick rule for quite a while!  I first mentioned it in an article on May 2010 as a small blurb about the Uptick Rule.

So what is the Uptick Rule?  Basically that a given stock has to be bid up a tick before shorting can happen!  Now it won’t stop a stock from going down in value and that wasn’t why it was invented!  It’s main purpose is to slow the decline of the downturn of a stock and to prevent corruption from happening because shorter can not pill on to the stock that’s falling like a rock dropped in a pond.

Oh, I heard the excuse how doing away with the uptick rule would help some Wallstreet folks keep their jobs back in 2008, I think that was a month or so before the market started to crash.  But I have to wonder, what about the small investors like me and the rest of the middle class?  Why doesn’t the government re-instate this rule?  With the machines and the whales playing in the market along with the small-scale investors, we are getting slapped around like rag dolls.  As an analogy, it’s like a 4th grade football team playing against the NFL football players…  Obviously, the 4th graders are always going to get hurt!  Why doesn’t the government wake up and realize this?  At least the Uptick Rule gave the middle class investors a fairer chance against the machines and whales…

If anything, it would give the market a boost of confidence, that the government is not going to take market manipulation!  Whether the effect from the reinstatement of the Uptick Rule is real or not, at least it would show the people who the government isn’t trying to destroy everybody’s wealth.  How can they just sit on their hands and let the boomers go bust?  It’s like kicking an old person if you see one out on the street!

Today left a bad taste in my mouth, as I really wondered if the stock market is corrupt and being manipulated.  What incredible sad it would be if that were true.

So I have to wonder, after so many years of not going far enough, Where is the Uptick Rule?

Thanks for letting me rant,

MR