Coronavirus Viewpoint and Known Statistic With Known Datasets

At this stage in time, China and South Korea both has the coronavirus in a manageable form. These two countries (China being the supposed point of origin), were impacted more dramatic initially because they are geographically next door neighbors to each other. While the coronavirus still exists in these countries, both countries have dramatically lowered their infection growth rates. I see no reason that the US and other countries will not have a similar outcome.

While this COVID-19 improvement in China, S. Korea, and the world, it will still have to run its course. That said, it’s not as threatening as the bubonic plague or even the Spanish Flu. With the Spanish Flu, it was highly impactful on total mortality numbers because of the overlap and economic aftereffects of World War I. Pandemics are a very serious deal (check out this article on the worst 5 pandemics, it’s worth a look to provide perspective on then vs today), but today we have science that strips away the supernatural old beliefs about such outbreaks (no bloodletting to get out the evil demons for the US). Such outbreak causes are not unknown or invisible to us today because of the power of technology. We know that outbreaks are either a transmittable virus or bacteria, and we know how to both prevent it, lessen the symptoms, treat it and eventually having a vaccine for it. Even now, drug companies have drugs that are somewhat effective as a treatment of the coronavirus, but not approved yet by FDA. The FDA being cautious to approve treatments and vaccines is positive, although it doesn’t seem that way on the surface.

The first highly impacted countries seem to have had significant contact with China in one form or another. Italy is highly impacted because of a high population density (about 60 million versus 40 million people in Canada) and Italy has a significant Chinese immigration influx (2nd highest group to migrate to Italy 250k in 2019).

Mortality rates for affected citizens in Italy (and France too) both have longer lifespans (in 80s age range) and a higher percentage of elderly in their country versus others. Compound this by their culture of living with their kids as they get older (or maybe even all along), then statistically while their high mortality rate is incredibly sad, it’s not that surprising.

Reasons United States should fare better against the coronavirus (COVID-19)

1. The United States had more time to observe the impact in China, this gives us a higher reaction time and more options for the virus once it hit the US.
2. Creative solutions and innovations are being aggressively explored within the United States giving us the advantage of seeing what is working in the earliest impacted countries, and frankly what is not working in those countries.
3. The United States (excluding major cities like California and New York) has a small population density that countries like Italy, South Korea, and France.
4. There are plenty of treatments that might already exist that could be used (read about hydroxychloroquine, Remdesivir and Kevzara, and numerous vaccines being tested (Moderna and Gilead being some of the leading candidates). Other FDA approved treatments could be used to indirectly reduce the symptoms to prevent deaths are being considered too. Such MedTech solutions could really take the bite out of coronavirus impact in the US, eventually making it a non-issue.
5. Spring is hitting in the United States, while nobody is truly sure of the effect of the warmer weather, historically it has helped with other diseases. That is why it’s rare to get a cold in the summer (and this virus is from the same viral family as the cold, so while we are not sure, it does seem likely spring will help).
6. The US as a whole has a culture that slows the spread of COVID-19 because younger generations don’t live with their parents compared to other countries, and have lower individual counts per house than other countries, and larger average houses sizes (Australia is #1, the US is #2). The US keeps there environments cleaner. US hygiene routines (we wash our hands and take showers more often than most countries) are better on average too.
7. The United States has one of the best medical industries in the world including the best medical technology (MedTech) and capacity.

Okay, I could go on and on about the advantages we have in the United States to fight the COVID-19 virus. I truly think that aside from Billionaires in the media predicting doom and gloom, things should be considered rationally and using existing data-sets provided from earlier inflicted countries for predictive analysis. If you do want to listen to a billionaire assessment (whom as a group are not any more qualified to assess this pandemic than you or I) listen to Warren Buffett, who has time and time again proven that he is within the top 1% in intelligence along with wealth accumulation. Remember wealth and intelligence, while correlated, is not highly correlated. Warren Buffett is both a genius in intelligence and wealth!

I’m sure that time will show that statistically, the US is going to be more like Australia than Italy in their ratio of total deaths caused by COVID-19 versus the entire US population at the conclusion of the coronavirus pandemic. I just hope we don’t go overboard by shutting down the entire country for something that I think will not be lethal to 99% of the US population. Yes, we all have a good high probability to get it, but it wouldn’t be as lethal at the media will lead you to believe! So far the statistics are showing that 81% of the confirmed folks that get it have mild to moderate symptoms. So that means that the “not confirmed” population who get it and just think they have the normal flu or cold, are not counted in that statistic!

Surprisingly as I type this the president is communicating a lot of the exact same things that I’m mentioning above…

Honestly, this is not the end of the world, and I think history will show this is not that impactful from a lethal perspective.

Unfortunately, economically, we’re going to take a hit in the short term (I’m guessing it will take 6 months to 1.5 years for the economy to recover and get back up to pre-coronavirus panic levels). The federal government is setting up financial relief for a quick economic recovery though, so I’m hoping for the best!

During this time, I’m buying stock in small chunks slowly because of free trades that most financial companies (brokers) provide!

Take care, take precautions, but don’t freak out!

Don